UAE exports set to hit Dh2 trillion in 2030

India to emerge as the country's largest trading partner

by

Issac John

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A view of Jebel Ali port in Dubai. The value of world merchandise trade rose 12 per cent to $25.3 trillion in 2022, inflated in part by high global commodity prices. — KT file
A view of Jebel Ali port in Dubai. The value of world merchandise trade rose 12 per cent to $25.3 trillion in 2022, inflated in part by high global commodity prices. — KT file

Published: Thu 1 Jun 2023, 3:05 PM

The UAE's exports are on track to surpass the global growth average with a strong annual rate of 5.5 per cent to exceed Dh2 trillion by 2030, Standard Chartered said.

In its latest research, the leading global banking group said the UAE, while recording a higher trade diversity for both imports and exports than the global average, will have India as its largest trading partner and Turkiye will emerge among its fastest-growing export destinations.


The bank's report titled "Future of Trade: New opportunities in high-growth corridors,” forecasts that the global trade industry is expected to reach Dh120 trillion by 2030, with a projected growth rate of five per cent.

Commissioned by Standard Chartered and prepared by PwC Singapore, the study provides a view on global trade over the next decade and identifies high growth corridors in Asia, Africa and the Middle East as well as 13 key markets that will define the way ahead.


The value of world merchandise trade rose 12 per cent to $25.3 trillion in 2022, inflated in part by high global commodity prices.

In 2022, the value of world commercial services trade increased 15 per cent to $ 6.8 trillion. Digitally delivered services exports were worth $3.82 trillion in the same year.

The value of world commercial services trade increased 15 per cent in 2022 to $6.8 trillion. Digitally delivered services exports were worth $3.82 trillion in the same year, according to data provided by World Trade Organisation.

"The UAE is poised to play a pivotal role in this global trade growth, with its exports projected to reach around Dh2 trillion by 2030, showcasing a robust annual growth rate of 5.5 per cent," said the study.

Additionally, the research highlights that trade corridors anchored in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East are expected to outpace the global trade growth rate by almost four percentage points, propelling the combined trade volume in these regions to an astounding Dh53 trillion, accounting for 44 per cent of global trade by 2030.

India will remain the UAE’s largest export destination, while exports to Turkiye, Vietnam and Singapore will be among the fastest-growing going forward, the report said.

Exports from the UAE to Turkiye are projected to surge 10 per cent annually to hit Dh55 billion and imports to grow 8.4 per cent per year to Dh29.4 billion by 2030. Exports to India are forecast to hit Dh265 billion (9.0 per cent) while imports are expected to reach Dh220.5 billion (8.2 per cent).

Other vibrant trade corridors of the UAE are Vietnam, Singapore and Mainland China.

The bank's study noted that driven by the government's unwavering commitment to facilitating cross-border trade, the UAE is undergoing substantial capacity expansions in critical industries. "Notably, the country has achieved an impressive export diversity ratio of 0.54 per cent, surpassing the global average." (Export and import diversities are measured by an index. A lower number indicates high diversity; global average for export diversity is 0.68 and for imports is 0.41). "This is due to the country’s efforts in diversifying exports into non-oil sectors through relaxing foreign ownership rules and offering attractive incentives," the bank said.

Rola Abu Manneh, chief executive officer, Standard Chartered UAE, said the UAE's success in diversifying its exports along with the development of new trade corridors positions the country favourably for sustained growth and reinforces its economic resilience. "This achievement is a direct result of the government’s dedicated efforts to facilitating cross-border trade,” said Manneh.

“These trade projections further cement the UAE’s position as the regional trade hub. The UAE continues to advance trade integration, and spearheads diversification efforts with policies supporting innovation and sustainability. We maintain a positive outlook on the UAE’s ability to capitalise on these opportunities and sustain its upward trajectory in global trade arena,” said Manneh.


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