Countries and Regions U.S. Ag Sector Can Focus on to Boost Ag Trade

Trump signals limited trade policy exemptions | Food prices | 45Z | GOP eyes gradual phaseout of green energy tax credits

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March 26, 2025 08:18 AM

Updates: Policy/News/Markets, March 26, 2025

— USDA refocuses rural energy programs to align with Trump’s energy independence agenda. USDA late Tuesday announced it will release previously obligated funding for rural energy initiatives, including REAP, New ERA, and PACE programs. Applicants now have 30 days to voluntarily revise their proposals to align with President Trump’s Unleashing American Energy Executive Order. Link to details on a report filed late Tuesday.

— Trump signals limited exemptions ahead of major tariff announcement. President Donald Trump said he does not plan to allow “too many” exemptions in his upcoming tariff push, signaling a hardline stance ahead of his April 2 announcement on reciprocal duties. In an interview with Newsmax, Trump emphasized he wants to avoid numerous carveouts despite ongoing talks. The planned tariffs are expected to target nations that impose trade barriers on U.S. goods, though the exact structure remains unclear. While Trump has suggested the tariffs could include adjustments for non-tariff barriers, he has also floated the possibility of offering breaks to some countries — statements that have fueled uncertainty among investors and trading partners alike. Calling the day of the announcement “Liberation Day,” Trump said the U.S. would finally strike back at countries that he claims are “ripping off” American industry.

— Copper tariff decision expected soon. The U.S. may impose tariffs on copper imports within weeks rather than months, according to Bloomberg. President Trump in February directed the Commerce Department to investigate and report on potential copper tariffs within 270 days. However, a decision could come sooner than expected, with duties potentially reaching up to 25% on all copper imports. copper prices on New York’s Comex commodities exchange have soared since Trump took office in January.

— Mexico on edge amid looming U.S. tariffs. Many Mexicans are currently in a state of collective suspense: the threat of new U.S. tariffs. At the heart of the economic concern is whether the United States will move forward with additional tariffs on Mexican imports next week. President Claudia Sheinbaum confirmed during her March 25 morning press conference that Mexico will wait until April 2 to assess the situation before deciding whether to impose retaliatory tariffs on April 3. The Trump administration is expected to intensify its protectionist stance, building on existing 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and certain non-USMCA goods. Sheinbaum emphasized ongoing dialogue with U.S. officials, notably Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard’s communication with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. Ebrard has warned that broad tariffs would not only harm Mexico’s economy but also trigger job losses and price hikes in the U.S.

— U.S./EU trade talks yield no breakthrough as tariff deadline looms. EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic met with key U.S. officials — including Commerce Secretary Lutnick, USTR Greer, and National Economic Council Director Hassett — on Tuesday in a last-ditch effort to prevent new U.S. tariffs on EU goods set to take effect next week. According to Reuters, the outcome of the meeting remains “unclear,” with Sefcovic stating, “The hard work goes on,” and reiterating the EU’s call for a “fair, balanced deal.” This was the third round of talks, following two previous sessions that failed to shift President Trump’s plans to hike import duties in response to what he views as unfair foreign trade practices.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal editorial board urged the EU to avoid escalation, warning that retaliatory moves — particularly led by France — could backfire economically. “Think of it as the dumb-and-dumber trade war,” the editorial said, adding that while Trump’s protectionism is damaging, EU retaliation could hurt both sides significantly.

— Global trade retreats amid rising protectionism. President Trump’s tariffs are just one part of a growing global trend toward protectionism, marking what may be the most significant retreat from open trade since the 1930s. Countries including South Korea, Vietnam, Mexico, Indonesia, and even Russia have been raising trade barriers — many targeting China — amid concerns over surging imports like electric vehicles and steel.

As of March 1, G20 economies had 4,650 import restrictions in place, a 75% increase since 2016 and nearly tenfold from 2008. In the U.S., the average tariff rate has risen to 8.4%, matching levels from 1946.

Of note: Fitch Ratings estimates tariffs on U.S. imports could hit an average 18% if Trump follows through on all his remaining threats. That would be the highest level in 90 years.

— What are the best opportunities for U.S. ag exports relative to new trade agreements? Several regions and countries present opportunities for new trade agreements or increased demand that could benefit U.S. agricultural exports :

· Southeast Asia: Countries like Indonesia and Vietnam are showing increased demand for U.S. wheat and dairy products. These emerging markets with growing middle classes offer significant potential for expanded agricultural trade.
· Middle East: Middle Eastern markets are importing more beef and poultry from the United States. Developing stronger trade ties in this region could further boost exports of these products.
· European Union: While already a significant trading partner, there’s potential for growth, particularly in exports of distilled spirits and tree nuts.
· United Kingdom: A bipartisan bill is encouraging the pursuit of a trade deal with the UK, which could open up new opportunities for U.S. agricultural exports.
· Latin America: Countries in this region, particularly in the Andean region, Caribbean, and Central America, have shown increased imports of U.S. agricultural products when trade disruptions occur with other partners. Formalizing trade agreements could solidify these opportunities.
· India, Bangladesh, and Malaysia: These countries have emerging middle classes, creating new opportunities for U.S. agricultural exports.
· North Africa: This region is an area with a growing middle class and increasing demand for high-protein foods, presenting potential for expanded agricultural trade.

Of note: Mexico, Canada, and China remain the top destinations for U.S. agricultural exports. Strengthening existing agreements or negotiating new terms with these major partners could also significantly benefit U.S. agricultural exports.

— Focus on safety: OSHA launches 2025 Stand Up 4 Grain Safety Week with emphasis on railway and hearing hazards. The U.S. Department of Labor kicked off the 2025 Stand Up 4 Grain Safety Week on March 24 at Iowa State University, highlighting critical safety topics in the agriculture industry including railway safety, hearing conservation, and grain engulfment prevention. Running through March 28, the national initiative — organized by OSHA’s Alliance Program alongside the Grain Handling Safety Council and other industry partners — aims to raise awareness and reduce injuries and fatalities in grain handling. The campaign includes daily webinars, expert discussions, and community outreach through social media and local events.

OSHA reported a 25.7% drop in fatal grain entrapments from 2022 to 2023, but noted that half of the entanglements in 2024 were still deadly. Acting Assistant Secretary Amanda Wood Laihow emphasized the shared responsibility in ensuring agricultural workers’ safety.

The campaign addresses six major hazards: engulfment, falls, auger entanglement, struck-by incidents, combustible dust, and electrocution. Link for details.

PERSONNEL

— Senate confirms Trump’s NIH and FDA picks amid health policy uncertainty. The Senate has confirmed two of President Donald Trump’s top health nominees, though their impact on federal health policy remains unclear.

Jay Bhattacharya, a Stanford health economist and physician, was confirmed 53-47 to lead the National Institutes of Health (NIH), which has recently experienced staff cuts, grant freezes, and funding caps under Trump’s second term. Bhattacharya has pledged no further layoffs but may be constrained by a new executive order requiring layoff plans from federal agencies.

Meanwhile, Marty Makary, a Johns Hopkins surgeon, was confirmed 56-44 to head the FDA, receiving support from a handful of Democrats — a rare break from party-line votes on Trump’s health appointees.

— Dr. Oz moves closer to leading $1.5 trillion health agency. Dr. Mehmet Oz, known for his career as a heart surgeon, TV host, author, and Senate candidate, is on track to become the next administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). On Tuesday, the Senate Finance Committee approved his nomination along party lines — all 14 Republicans voted in favor, while all 13 Democrats opposed. If confirmed by the full Senate, Oz would take the helm of a $1.5 trillion agency that oversees health care for around 160 million Americans. Democratic opposition centered on Oz’s refusal to commit to protecting Medicaid from Republican-led spending cuts. Senators expressed concern that Oz, during his confirmation hearing, dodged direct questions about whether he would oppose reductions to the program or follow directives that might undermine it. Republicans, meanwhile, defended Oz’s nomination, with Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) stating the GOP aims to “save” and “strengthen” Medicaid for the most vulnerable. Oz’s comments at his hearing aligned closely with the Trump administration’s approach to health policy, including a focus on reducing chronic disease and rooting out Medicare Advantage fraud — a program he pledged to clean up as the “new sheriff in town.”

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Equities today: Asian and European stock markets were mixed in quieter overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly higher openings. In Asia, Japan +0.7%. Hong Kong +0.6%. China flat. India -0.9%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.1%. Paris -0.7%. Frankfurt -0.6%.

Equities yesterday:

— ADM cuts jobs in grain trading division amid cost-saving push. Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) is cutting jobs in its grain trading and oilseed processing division, according to Reuters. The exact number of layoffs is unclear. In February, ADM announced plans to cut up to 700 jobs and reduce costs by $500 million to $750 million over three to five years. It remains uncertain whether the latest reductions are part of that earlier plan or an additional move. The cuts are reportedly concentrated in ADM’s agricultural services and oilseed operations, rather than its nutrition unit, Reuters reported, citing an unnamed source.

— Debt limit projection coming. The Congressional Budget Office is planning to release its projection for when the U.S. will breach the debt limit at 10 a.m. ET.

— Moody’s warns of continued U.S. fiscal deterioration. Moody’s is again raising concerns about the United States’ fiscal trajectory. After joining Fitch in downgrading the country’s credit rating in 2023 — following a debt ceiling standoff — and with S&P having done so in 2011, the agency now warns of deepening long-term challenges. This latest alert comes ahead of the Congressional Budget Office’s updated economic and budget outlook. “Fiscal strength is on course for a continued multiyear decline,” Moody’s stated, adding that “fiscal weakening will likely persist even in very favorable economic and financial scenarios.” The agency emphasized that evolving U.S. policies on trade, immigration, taxes, federal spending, and regulation could have “significant long-term consequences” for both the U.S. and global economies.

AG MARKETS

— Ag markets today:

Quiet overnight grain trade. Grain markets traded on both sides of unchanged overnight, with corn and soybeans favoring the upside early this morning while wheat is weaker. As of 7:30 a.m. CT, corn futures were trading steady to a penny higher, soybeans were 1 to 2 cents higher and wheat futures were fractionally to a penny lower. The U.S. dollar index was modestly firmer and front-month crude oil futures were around 65 cents higher.
Choice beef remains on a tear. Choice boxed beef prices surged another $8.09 to $335.19 on Tuesday, continuing the recent sharp price climb. Select beef firmed 47 cents to $314.05. Choice beef has surged $24.42 since Feb. 21 to the highest level since June 2023. However, packer margins remain deep in the red as gains in wholesale beef have been more than offset by record cash prices.
Pork cutout firms but eases from intraday gains. Pork cutout topped $100.00 in morning trade on Tuesday, fueled by a $19.39 surge in primal bellies, but finished the day up just 18 cents to $97.55 as belly prices pulled back from their intraday high and all other cuts except picnics weakened. Still, pork cutout is supporting the CME lean hog index, which is up 11 cents to $88.90 as of March 24.

— Ag trade: Taiwan purchased 65,000 MT of corn expected to be sourced from the United States. The Philippines purchased an unspecified volume of Australian feed wheat. South Korea tendered to buy up to 280,000 MT of corn – 140,000 MT to be sourced from the U.S., South America or South Africa and 140,000 MT to be sourced from South America or South Africa. Jordan tendered to buy up to 120,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat.

— Agriculture markets yesterday:

FARM POLICY

— Farmdoc Daily comments on ECAP program. Highlights of farmdoc’s report (link):

The latest acreage reporting data from FSA (dated January 2nd, 2025) suggests total ECAP payments could reach $10.02 billion. This assumes all currently reported and eligible planted and prevent planted acres apply for ECAP.
FSA is also allowing for late acreage reporting prior to the Aug. 15 deadline, which could increase total eligible acres.
While not guaranteed, it seems likely that a second payment would occur to provide producers with the full ECAP payment rate.
The ECAP program’s website clarifies a common question that has been raised by producers regarding how double-crop acres will be treated for payments.If both commodities raised are in an approved double-crop rotation, acreage for both commodities is eligible for ECAP payments.If a 1,500 acre example farm had 800 corn acres, 400 soybean acres, and 300 wheat acres which were followed by double-crop soybeans it would receive an initial ECAP payment of $54,711.95 ($42.91 x 800 + $29.76 x 700 + $30.69 x 300 = $64,367 x 0.85 = $54,711.95).
While commodity programs could trigger support payments for 2025, calls for additional rounds of ad hoc support payments seem likely. The potential for increased costs associated with tariffs on U.S. imports and weaker export demand for U.S. commodities resulting from retaliatory tariffs on U.S exports could strengthen arguments for additional ad hoc support. However, current initiatives to cut government spending to increase efficiency, reduce the deficit, and finance proposed tax cuts could pose significant headwinds to more support for agriculture.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Oil prices climb on supply fears and U.S. tariff threat. Oil prices rose on Wednesday amid growing concerns over tighter global supply. The U.S. warned of tariffs on countries purchasing Venezuelan crude, and U.S. crude inventories dropped more than expected. Brent crude increased by 49 cents (0.67%) to $73.51 a barrel, while WTI crude rose 48 cents (0.70%) to $69.48.

— Oil prices diverged Tuesday amid Russia/Ukraine truce and U.S. tariff concerns. Oil prices moved in opposite directions on Tuesday as a maritime and energy infrastructure truce between Russia and Ukraine helped ease geopolitical tensions, offsetting fears over potential U.S. tariffs on Venezuelan oil. Brent crude edged up 2 cents to $73.02, while WTI slipped 11 cents to $69. The U.S.-brokered ceasefire includes commitments from both Kyiv and Moscow to halt attacks on critical energy assets, with Washington offering to advocate for sanctions relief on Russia. However, both sides expressed doubts about compliance. Analysts believe the truce could pave the way for easing Russian oil sanctions. At the same time, proposed tariffs by former President Trump on Venezuelan oil raise concerns, particularly for China’s independent refineries reliant on that supply. The U.S. also extended Chevron’s exit deadline from Venezuela to May 27. A full pullout could reduce Venezuelan output by 200,000 barrels per day.

— GOP eyes gradual phaseout of green energy tax credits amid budget talks. Politico reports that House Republicans, led by Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas), are signaling a shift from a hardline stance on repealing clean energy tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) to considering a more “thoughtful” phaseout. While Arrington still views the credits as “wasteful,” he acknowledged Tuesday that a gradual rollback would be less disruptive to the market.

The softening comes as GOP leaders struggle to find enough climate-related savings to offset the cost of extending 2017 tax cuts. Congressional Budget Office data recently showed limited unspent IRA funds left to cut. With pressure mounting to finalize a reconciliation budget plan, internal GOP divisions are emerging, particularly from members whose districts benefit economically from clean energy investments.

Energy lobbyists — especially from Republican-leaning districts — are actively campaigning to preserve the credits, while some Republicans are exploring alternate cost-saving measures like rolling back emissions rules or boosting fossil fuel development. The evolving approach reflects the party’s balancing act between fiscal goals, political realities, and economic interests back home.

— Biofuel industry seeks stronger climate-smart link to clean fuel tax credit. The biofuel industry and farm groups have been pushing for stronger connections between climate-smart agriculture practices and transportation fuels, particularly in relation to the Clean Fuel Production Credit (Section 45Z) that took effect on January 1, 2025. However, the Trump administration’s approach to these regulations remains uncertain.

USDA’s interim rule: On January 15, 2025, USDA published an interim rule on Technical Guidelines for Climate-Smart Agriculture Crops Used as Biofuel Feedstocks. This rule establishes guidelines for quantifying, reporting, and verifying greenhouse gas emissions associated with biofuel feedstock production.
Industry response: Biofuel industry groups and farm organizations submitted numerous public comments to USDA by the March 18, 2025 deadline, urging for a stronger link between climate-smart agriculture and transportation fuels.
Regulatory uncertainty: The Trump administration’s freeze on pending federal regulations has injected uncertainty into the future of these new opportunities. This includes the Treasury Department’s guidance on the IRA renewable tax benefits.
Clean Fuel Production Credit (45Z): The biofuel industry had been eagerly awaiting instructions on how to qualify for the 45Z clean fuel credits under the Inflation Reduction Act. However, the initial Treasury guidance was criticized for lacking details on qualifying practices as it was just a notice that they intended to come forward with the rules.
USDA’s role: USDA’s interim rule was intended to fill gaps in the Treasury Department’s guidance and potentially shape future biofuel regulations. It defines climate-smart practices such as reduced till, cover cropping, and improved nutrient management.
Industry concerns: Groups like the National Corn Growers Association have expressed appreciation for the USDA’s efforts but remain concerned about the clarity of farmer participation and benefits.

— Supreme Court weighs venue for refinery exemption disputes. On Tuesday (March 25), the U.S. Supreme Court heard EPA v. Calumet Shreveport Refining, LLC, a case that could reshape how legal challenges to small-refinery exemptions (SREs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) are handled. At issue is whether such challenges should be heard in the D.C. Circuit to ensure consistency or in regional courts closer to the refineries.

EPA and biofuel advocates argued for centralization in the D.C. Circuit to maintain uniformity in interpreting the RFS, a national program.

Refiners pushed for local court jurisdiction, citing the individualized nature of SRE cases and the need for local context.

Background: A 2023 Fifth Circuit ruling broke with other appellate courts by claiming jurisdiction over SRE cases, sparking a venue split and concerns over “venue shopping” by refiners seeking favorable outcomes.

Bottom line: The Court’s decision will likely influence how future SRE disputes are litigated and could have significant implications for both the refining and biofuel sectors.

TRADE POLICY

— Canada suspends EV rebates for Tesla amid trade dispute. Canada will stop all rebate payments to Tesla and exclude the company from future electric vehicle (EV) rebate programs, Transport Minister Chrystia Freeland announced Tuesday. In an emailed statement, Freeland said each rebate claim will now undergo individual investigation before approval. She also ordered a revision of eligibility rules to ensure Tesla vehicles are excluded if “illegitimate and illegal U.S. tariffs are imposed against Canada.” More than C$30 million ($20.9 million) in rebates have been frozen.

— U.S. expands export restrictions list. The U.S. added more than 80 entities, including those from China, Iran and Pakistan, to its export restrictions list. The entities, including over 50 from China, were found to be acting contrary to the national security or foreign policy of the U.S. China’s foreign ministry said on Wednesday that it strongly condemns the blacklisting of entities and urged Washington to stop generalizing the concept of national security.

Details: Two new final rules will be published on Feb. 28 regarding updates to the U.S. Entity List, which restricts certain exports to designated entities due to national security or foreign policy concerns.

First final rule (link) adds 12 entities to the Entity List.

11 in China
1 in Taiwan

The entities are deemed to be acting contrary to U.S. national security or foreign policy interests.

Second final rule (link) adds 70 entities under the following destinations:

42 in China
2 in Iran
19 in Pakistan
3 in South Africa
4 in the UAE
Modifies 4 existing entries: 1 each in France, Iran, Senegal, and the UK

Upshot: These measures reflect a continued tightening of U.S. export controls in response to global security and geopolitical concerns.

CONGRESS

— GOP nears deal on tax cuts and debt ceiling amid party divisions. Republican leaders say they’re nearing a deal to extend former President Trump’s 2017 tax cuts and raise the debt ceiling, aiming for passage of a major economic package by the end of May. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) signaled growing alignment between the chambers after a key meeting Tuesday. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, along with Trump’s National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, hosted the meeting of the “Big Six” tax negotiators at the Treasury Department with Thune and Johnson. Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Id.) and Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.), who chair the tax committees in each chamber, also attended.

The House plan ties the debt ceiling increase to the tax bill, pressuring lawmakers to act before the U.S. approaches its borrowing limit this summer or fall. Republicans are pushing for a pre-Memorial Day vote, though internal divisions remain over the scale of tax cuts, spending offsets, and concerns about Medicaid reductions. Senate Republicans have hesitated to embrace the House’s $4.5 trillion tax plan with $2 trillion in spending cuts, with some favoring deeper tax breaks without added cuts.

Of note: Thune told Republicans to expect a vote on a compromise budget resolution the week of April 7.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

— Democrats outraise GOP, but Florida specials still lean Republican. Despite massive fundraising hauls fueled by progressive anger at the Trump administration, Democrats are unlikely to flip two deep-red Florida congressional seats in next Tuesday’s special elections, writes Erin Covey of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. The contests, triggered by the resignations of Rep. Matt Gaetz (FL-1) and former Rep. Michael Waltz (FL-6), offer Democrats a slim chance to close the gap in the House, where they are just three seats shy of a majority. However, Covery notes that both districts remain heavily Republican — Trump carried FL-1 by 37 points and FL-6 by 30 — making Democratic victories highly improbable despite their financial edge.

FOOD & FOOD INDUSTRY

— USDA lowers overall food inflation outlook, but egg prices soar. USDA trimmed its forecast for overall food price inflation in 2025, despite sharply raising its projection for egg prices due to ongoing avian flu impacts.

USDA now expects food prices to rise 3.2% in 2025, slightly down from its February forecast of 3.4%. Grocery (food-at-home) prices are projected to climb 2.7%, compared to the prior estimate of 3.3%. In contrast, restaurant (food-away-from-home) prices are now expected to rise 3.7%, up from February’s 3.4% forecast.

Despite the lowered overall outlook, all three categories are still projected to rise above their 20-year averages: 2.9% for all food, 2.6% for groceries, and 3.5% for restaurants. In 2024, all food prices rose 2.3%, grocery prices were up 1.2%, and restaurant prices increased 4.1%.

Egg prices spike amid avian flu outbreak. The most dramatic change comes in the forecast for eggs, with USDA now projecting a record 57.6% increase in 2025 — up sharply from the 41.1% forecast in February and far higher than the 8.5% increase seen in 2024. Retail egg prices surged 12.5% in February 2025 alone, following double-digit gains in January and December. USDA attributes the price volatility to the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak, which affected about 30 million commercial egg-laying hens in early 2025. Although detections eased in March, USDA notes that retail prices typically lag behind changes in wholesale prices, which have recently declined.

Mixed shifts in other food categories. Several food categories are now forecast to be cheaper in 2025 than in 2024:

Pork: Down 1.5% (vs. +1.2% in February)
Other meats: Down 0.2% (vs. +0.6%)
Poultry: Down 0.4% (vs. unchanged)
Dairy: Down 0.8% (vs. +2.2%)

Beef and veal prices, however, are expected to climb 5.2% in 2025, up from the February forecast of 3.2%. Beef and veal prices are now forecast to rise 5.2% in 2025 versus an outlook for an increase of 3.2% in February.

USDA also slightly reduced its forecast for other categories:

Fats and oils: +0.3% (vs. +0.6% in February)
Sugar and sweets: +5.1% (vs. +6.4%)
Fruits and vegetables: Still seen rising 1.7%, though fresh fruits are now forecast to rise just 0.1%, and fresh vegetables by 2.0%.

Why overall grocery inflation remains moderate. Although egg prices are surging, their limited weight in the index — just 1.4% of total food prices — helps explain why the overall grocery inflation outlook was revised lower. In contrast, food at home accounts for 58.9% of the food component of the CPI, while restaurant spending makes up 41.1%.

USDA emphasizes that its forecasts reflect the annual average change in prices for 2025 compared to 2024, not month-to-month or year-end inflation. Some of the projected increases for 2025 have already materialized in early-year data.

Bottom line: Even with a slower pace of inflation compared to recent years, the trend remains clear: U.S. consumers will still pay more for food in 2025 than they did in 2024.

— Indonesia poised to export 1.6 million eggs monthly to U.S. amid ongoing shortage. Indonesia announced its readiness to export up to 1.6 million eggs per month to the United States, aiming to ease the country’s ongoing egg shortage caused by a bird flu outbreak. With a surplus in domestic production, Indonesia sees this as a strategic opportunity to support global markets. “Stock shortage in other countries can be an opportunity for us to export. One of the export plans is to the U.S.,” said Moch. Arief Cahyono, spokesperson for Indonesia’s agriculture ministry.

This plan aligns with broader U.S. efforts to secure egg imports, including ongoing shipments from Turkey, with a shipment of approximately 15,000 tonnes (equivalent to about 33 million pounds) scheduled to continue through July 2025. As U.S. egg prices remain unstable, Indonesian imports could help stabilize the market and improve supply for American consumers.

RUSSIA & UKRAINE

— U.S.-brokered truce marks major step toward Ukraine/Russia ceasefire. The United States brokered separate agreements with Ukraine and Russia, securing a truce in the Black Sea and a halt to attacks on energy infrastructure — signaling a potential breakthrough in the three-year conflict.

Key points of the agreement:

Black Sea truce: Both nations pledged safe navigation, a ban on force, and no use of commercial vessels for military purposes.
Energy infrastructure protection: Strikes on energy facilities are prohibited for both sides.
Russian agricultural exports: The U.S. will help restore Russia’s access to global markets, including easing maritime insurance and payment system access, and agriculture and fertilizer shipments.
Sanctions relief: Russia links truce compliance to lifting sanctions, including reconnecting Rosselkhozbank to SWIFT.
Enforcement: Both parties expect the U.S. to enforce terms.

Implementation challenges

Timeline discrepancy: Ukraine says the deal is active immediately; Russia awaits sanction relief.
Sanctions relief: EU cooperation may be needed for easing financial restrictions.
Monitoring: Ukraine proposes third-party observers — Europe or Turkey for maritime, and a Middle Eastern nation for infrastructure oversight.

Update: The Kremlin says the maritime security deal in the Black Sea won’t move forward unless several conditions favoring Russia are met. Russia insists on concrete concessions — especially on sanctions relief. Moscow claims its demands under the earlier 2022 UN/Turkey-brokered Black Sea grain deal were ignored, particularly regarding exports of Russian food and fertilizer. While technically not sanctioned, those exports face practical barriers like restrictions on logistics, insurance, and payments. Russia specifically wants its state agricultural bank reconnected to the SWIFT international payment system — a step requiring European approval. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized that for any new deal to work, “justice must prevail,” and Russia expects the U.S. to ensure its interests are no longer overlooked.

Significance: This is the most meaningful move toward a broader ceasefire since the war began, though its durability depends on timely implementation and resolution of differing interpretations.

CHINA

— Barshefsky: China’s trade surplus too big to ‘live with’. China is running a trade surplus the world economy can’t “live with,” former President Bill Clinton’s top trade official Charlene Barshefsky said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “China is exploiting manufacturing, suppressing domestic consumption, and expects that the world can live with a trillion-dollar Chinese trade surplus, which most certainly the world cannot.” Barshefsky, who negotiated the terms of China’s accession to the World Trade Organization more than two decades ago, said that agreement was “absolutely not” a mistake. However, China’s convergence toward “market-based norms” has reversed course as domestic reforms stalled, she said. It leaned increasingly on investment in manufacturing to drive growth and began to flood the market with exports. That’s “not what the world needs — we don’t have a supply problem in the world, we have a demand problem,” she said.

BORDER, IMMIGRATION, DEPORTATION & LABOR

— Trump pauses some green card applications to increase vetting. The Trump administration has halted certain green card applications as part of an effort to intensify screening of potential permanent residents. The Department of Homeland Security announced the pause will remain in place pending “additional screening and vetting.” According to CBS News, the suspension primarily affects applications from immigrants with refugee or asylum status. This move aligns with President Trump’s broader immigration agenda, which includes mass deportations and the rollback of legal protections for migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela.

Trump has also refused to renew Temporary Protected Status for Venezuelans and Haitians, potentially impacting hundreds of thousands.

Of note: While mass deportations have slowed, unauthorized border crossings have plunged, with February arrests dropping to under 8,500 — the lowest in decades.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Heavy rain and flash flooding potential emerging across southern Texas later today and continuing into Thursday... ...Thunderstorms could become severe across the Pacific Northwest tonight, and across southern Texas on Friday... ...Periods of light snow expected from the Great Lakes to the Northeast as record warmth spreads from the western U.S. into the central U.S.

KEY DATES IN MARCH

27: USDA Hogs & Pigs report
27: MLB Opening Day
28: Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index
29: Last day of Ramadan
31: USDA Prospective Plantings, Grain Stocks and Rice Stocks reports | Ag Prices

LINKS