ASTANA — Last week, the world was shaken by an announcement made in the White House Rose Garden by the United States President Donald Trump. Declaring it “America’s Liberation Day,” Trump unveiled the launch of an all-out trade war, introducing sweeping mirror tariffs on nearly every country — including Kazakhstan.
Subjected to a 27% tariff — the highest in Central Asia — the country is expected to face minimal impact, according to experts. Some even see the silver lining of this, as it could pave the way for closer cooperation between Astana and Washington.
The U.S. represents just 3% of Kazakhstan’s foreign trade, and around 85% of its exports to the U.S. — including oil, uranium, and silver — are included in the list of exemptions outlined in the U.S. President’s Executive Order, according to the Kazakh Ministry of Trade and Integration’s statement released on April 3. The ministry confirmed that the new measures will affect only 4.8% of the country’s total exports to the U.S. The ministry also highlighted Kazakhstan’s adherence to World Trade Organization principles and confirmed ongoing consultations with the U.S. to discuss potential tariff exemptions.
Experts: Impact on Kazakhstan likely minimal
The Astana Times spoke to Kazakh and American experts on the potential implications of the new tariffs, set to take effect on April 9.
Aida Haidar.
Darren Spinck, a research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, a U.K.-based think tank, downplayed the impact of the new tariffs on Kazakhstan. While surprised by the 27% tariff, he noted that only a small percentage of Kazakhstan’s total trade would be affected.
“There’s a silver lining here. From what I understand, only around 5% of non-energy or non-natural resource trade between Kazakhstan and the U.S. is subject to that 27% tariff. So that leaves considerable room for negotiation,” he said.
Spinck added that a dialogue between the two presidents – Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Donald Trump – could lead to a broader agreement that benefits both economies.
“The vast majority of Kazakhstan’s exports to the U.S. — natural resources and energy — remain unaffected. So the economic impact will be minimal,” he added.
Kazakhstan’s independent financial analyst, Andrey Chebotаrev, echoed Spinck’s view.
“These new tariffs won’t really change much for us. About 80% of our exports fall under special provisions. If you look at the fine print of Trump’s tariff order, oil, energy resources, rare earth metals, and ferroalloys are exempt. These make up the bulk of our exports,” he said.
According to Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics, trade with the U.S. reached $4.2 billion in 2024, up from $3.05 billion in 2022. Kazakh exports to the U.S. rose 30.6% to hit $2 billion. Still, the U.S. remains outside Kazakhstan’s top five export destinations, which include Italy, China, Russia, France, Türkiye, and Uzbekistan.
Kazakhstan’s exports to the U.S. are mainly resource-driven, particularly mineral fuels. The country also exports uranium ($322.9 million), silver ($239.9 million), refined copper, and raw alloys widely used in electronics and construction. Inorganic chemicals and ferrous metals used in infrastructure and heavy industry are also notable contributors. This export mix positions Kazakhstan as a key, if underrecognized, player in the U.S. supply chain.
Room for strategic agreements
Spinck believes there’s potential for the U.S. to scale back the tariffs through negotiations and possibly lay the groundwork for deeper economic cooperation.
“There’s an opportunity here. If the U.S. and Kazakhstan reach an agreement, it could even pave the way for the U.S. Congress to grant Kazakhstan permanent normal trade relations. That would likely lead to more U.S. investment in Kazakhstan and Central Asia — particularly in infrastructure, the Middle Corridor, and the mining sector,” he explained.
On whether the tariffs could push Kazakhstan closer to the EU, Chebotаrev remained skeptical.
“The EU is already our largest trading partner, and the U.S. doesn’t rank among our top ten,” he said. “I don’t see any major shifts or reasons for concern.”
Spinck agreed, noting that the EU has shown increasing interest in Central Asia, especially in light of recent developments.
“Last week’s EU – Central Asia Summit in Samarkand made it clear — Europe is looking to invest in the region, particularly in rare earth elements,” he said.
Meanwhile, tensions between the U.S. and China are rising. Beijing responded to the U.S. tariffs by placing export restrictions on rare earth elements, a move expected to strain global supply chains for weapons, electronics, and consumer goods. Spinck noted that the U.S. will clearly need diversification of its rare earth supplies in the future, and Central Asia, especially Kazakhstan, holds enormous promise.
“I’ve discussed this many times that Central Asia holds great promise for the U.S. I do see some interesting interplay, though, with the four parties that are all demonstrating interest in the region right now, Brussels, Washington, Beijing, and Moscow,” he said, highlighting the geopolitical competition unfolding in the region.
According to Spinck, Russia won’t welcome the EU’s expanding influence in Central Asia, especially given its position on Ukraine. Likewise, China won’t be pleased with greater U.S. involvement. In Spinck’s view, Kazakhstan will choose partnerships based on the most favorable economic terms. He stated that the U.S. leads in artificial intelligence and has a less restrictive regulatory system compared to the EU, making it an attractive destination for investment.
Regarding the reasons behind Trump’s tough stance in the tariff war, Spinck offered his perspective, suggesting that many economists fail to recognize it as a long-term strategy by the Trump administration. According to Spinck, it is part of a larger effort to simultaneously reshape global trade, global currency agreements, and North Atlantic trade. While acknowledging the scale of this undertaking, he emphasized that it is both possible and necessary. He pointed to bond yields as a key indicator.
“Bond yields are dropping, meaning more demand for U.S. Treasuries. That leads to a lower U.S. debt level, which allows the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. That reduces personal debt of American citizens and supports homeownership. There’s a long game here, but most economic commentators only look at stock indexes — it’s not a full picture of U.S. economic strength,” he concluded.
Eurasian Development Bank weighs in
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) released a statement highlighting the broader effects of rising protectionism on its member states. Kazakhstan faces a 27% tariff, but, as previously noted, the U.S. accounts for just 3% of its trade, with most key exports being exempt. Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan will face a 10% tariff, but the U.S. comprises only 1%, 3.9%, and 0.1% of their trade, respectively. Russia and Belarus will see no changes, as trade with the U.S. remains significantly lower than pre-sanctions and pre-pandemic levels.
However, the EDB cautioned about indirect risks. A global economic slowdown could reduce demand for raw materials, negatively affecting energy-exporting nations. Volatile oil prices may arise from increasing uncertainty and sluggish global business activity. Additionally, investment inflows into emerging markets may decline due to heightened risk perception.
While the direct trade impact of the new U.S. tariffs on Kazakhstan and its neighbors may be minimal, the broader geopolitical and economic consequences are beginning to unfold.
